Two teams headed in different directions settle Week 13 odds in the nation’s capital on Sunday when the high-flying Miami Dolphins bring their show on the road to face the floundering Washington Commanders. The Dolphins are riding high after destroying the Jets by 21 on Black Friday, while the Commanders are trying to put the pieces back together after getting obliterated by 35 against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
Miami is the biggest NFL odds favorite of the week for this matchup, coming in at -9.5, while the game also features the highest total of the week at 49.5.
Let’s dig into some advantages vs disadvantages as well as each team’s recent form, and I’ll give you my free NFL picks and predictions for Dolphins vs. Commanders on December 3.
Dolphins vs Commanders odds
Dolphins vs Commanders predictions
There’s no need to beat around the bush here: Simply put, the Dolphins offense vs the Commanders defense is one of the NFL’s biggest mismatches.
Miami comes into this game ranked first in yards per play and second in points per game. Washington’s defense is 30th in yards per play allowed and easily ranks last in points allowed at 29.2. The Commanders have been especially bad against the pass, ranking 31st in yards allowed per pass attempt. Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense rank second in yards per pass attempt and the game sets up nicely for their pass attack as the Commanders have done a poor job at pressuring opposing QBs.
On the other side, Miami’s defense will have a definitive edge in the trenches as it’s been fantastic at pressuring quarterbacks. The Fins rank fifth in pressure percentage and have the third-most sacks. This matches up nicely against a Commanders offensive line that’s allowed the second-most sacks this season.
As a whole, Miami’s defense has turned a corner and is developing into one of the league’s top units. Over its last four games, it’s allowed just 16 points per game and that includes touchdowns allowed off turnovers to the Chiefs and the Jets defenses. The defensive surge has elevated them to ranking seventh in yards allowed per play and ninth in yards allowed per pass attempt… I think Jalen Ramsey is making a difference back there in the secondary.
So, everything points to Miami here, but is the spread too big? I don’t think so, as the Dolphins have made a habit of destroying bad teams this season. They beat the Giants by 15, Panthers by 21, Patriots by 14, and Jets by 21, so there’s no pattern of playing down to the competition. They did only beat the Raiders by seven, but that game wasn’t as close as the final score indicated.
I’m also not concerned about a backdoor cover situation. On this week’s edition of Hard Knocks with the Miami Dolphins, a halftime clip of Ramsey was shown from the Jets game saying, “Let’s beat their ass, this shit ain’t gotta be close at all!” I think they bring that same attitude into this game and don’t take their foot off the gas against an opponent whose wheels have completely fallen off.
My best bet: Dolphins -9.5 (-110 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Dolphins vs Commanders same-game parlay
Dolphins -9.5Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 passing TDsJaylen Waddle Over 68.5 receiving yards
+322 at FanDuel
Let’s build off that Dolphins spread pick by supporting two of their offense’s biggest stars.
Tua is always a candidate to fill the stat sheet, especially when it comes against a team with a below-average pass rush that’s been getting lit up in the passing game all season. Washington is 31st in yards per attempt allowed, so expect Miami to move the ball quite easily through the air and possibly break off some long passing plays that go for touchdowns. The Commanders are coming off a game where they allowed four touchdown passes to Dak Prescott and rank dead-last in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed per game.
As for Jaylen Waddle, he’s seen an increase in targets in recent weeks, with eight or more in five of his last seven games. Mike McDaniel is clearly making an effort to get him more involved in the offense, which has resulted in two 100+ yard games in his last four games. With his big-play ability against this weak pass defense, it might only take a few catches for him to go over this number.
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