The New York Jets are desperate to make a push in Week 7, adding star receiver Davante Adams to their roster ahead of a Sunday Night Football showdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
This primetime spread ranged from Steelers -2 to Jets -1.5 on Tuesday morning before news of the Adams trade. However, once that move was official, the betting markets went as high as New York -2 before buyback on the home underdog showed up and settled the consensus at Jets -1.5.
I dig into that wild spread and Over/Under total for Sunday Night Football, giving my early Jets vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks for October 20.
Jets vs Steelers predictions
Early spread leanPittsburgh +1 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The New York Jets are on a short week after losing to Buffalo at home on Monday night. New York is grasping for straws on offense, even before bringing in Davante Adams.
In the wake of Robert Saleh’s firing, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett had his playcalling duties stripped and handed to assist Todd Downing for Week 6. Although the Jets offense put up nearly 400 yards versus the Bills, Aaron Rodgers & Co. came up short in key spots like third downs and red-zone possessions.
Downing and interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich are up against one of the best defenses in the NFL on Sunday night and well out of their depth against savvy Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh ranks high in most of the advanced defensive metrics and is starting to get complementing outputs from the offense as well.
There’s a reason sharper books opened with Pittsburgh at -2, and why we now see this spread as short as a pick’em at other shops. I’m taking the points with Tomlin, who has covered at a 56% clip as a dog during his coaching career.
Early Over/Under leanUnder 38 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
As mentioned, Pittsburgh’s defense is one of the toughest in the land but also one of the most dangerous, with 11 takeaways on the year. Rodgers has also become prone to turnovers, throwing four interceptions over the past two games.
Those miscues are drive-killers against a Pittsburgh stop unit that already slams the door in the red zone, boasting the third-lowest TD percentage inside the 20-yard line. That’s helped the Steelers stay Under the total in four of their six games so far.
New York’s defense didn’t look great on Monday night, but they’re set to face a much weaker offensive threat from the Steelers in Week 7. Pittsburgh’s attack is primarily on the ground, handing off at the second highest rate in the NFL — which means shorter gains and the clocking ticking.
The Jets are trying for more balance on the ground under Downing, who ran 21 times for 121 yards on Monday but was forced to pass with the team trailing in the second half. That rushing game goes up against a Steelers stop unit allowing 3.6 yards per carry — second-lowest in the league.
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Jets vs Steelers live odds
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Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.
Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.
He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.
On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.
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